Bangladesh Awaits a “New Political Order”

Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who ruled Bangladesh for close to two decades, has resigned and fled the country following weeks of deadly protests and demonstrations. The Bangladesh Army has taken charge and promised to form an interim government of “stakeholders” to pave the way for free and fair elections. Nobel Laureate Prof. Mohammad Yunus has agreed to head the interim government in Dhaka.

Hasina’s resignation came after more than 300 people died and thousands were injured in weeks of protest that the authorities sought to crush. 4 August marked one of the deadliest days in Bangladesh’s recent history of civil unrest, when close to 100 people were killed, hundreds injured, and an indefinite curfew was called. The internet was shut down and a three-day general holiday was announced.

The fall of Hasina’s regime is set to rattle the geopolitics of the Indian subcontinent. India and Bangladesh have strong people-to-people relations and close cultural affinities. Hasina has been crucial in keeping anti-India forces and religious extremists in Bangladesh under check. She cracked down on anti-India terror outfits like Jamaat-e-Islami operating from Bangladeshi soil. However, she used the same logic to suppress all dissenting voices in civil society and academia. Both India and China stood behind her when the US questioned Hasina for rigging the elections in January 2024.

Students Kick Off a Revolution

The protests, which began last month, escalated dramatically when student activists at Dhaka University, the largest in the country, clashed violently with police and pro-government counter-protesters. The roots of these protests lie in a controversial “quota” system that would reserve up to 30 percent of government jobs for the children and grandchildren of veterans of Bangladesh’s 1971 war of independence against Pakistan. The quota system, established in 1972 and briefly abolished in 2018 before being reinstated, was a persistent source of contention. Protesters argued that the system was discriminatory and favoured supporters of Hasina’s Awami League party. They advocated for a merit-based system to replace the existing quota.

On 5 June, the High Court reinstated the 30 percent quota for descendants of veterans. Thus, 56 percent of jobs were reserved for specific communities — only 44 percent were left for merit-based positions. With some 18 million young Bangladeshis out of work, according to government figures, the move upset youths facing an acute unemployment crisis. Students of various universities in Dhaka and elsewhere united to demand a quota reform. Peaceful agitations gradually became widespread and took the form of a popular “anti-discrimination students movement”.

Gradually, the protests transcended the quota reform, as people from all walks of life started participating.

On 14 July, PM Sheikh Hasina made a controversial remark about the anti-quota protesters, which escalated the situation and fired the public anger. She implied that the protesters were “Razakars”, an offensive term for those who collaborated with the Pakistani army during the 1971 liberation war. That comparison drew further ire from protesters and galvanized the whole country .

The protests were paused after the Supreme Court scrapped most quotas, declaring that 93 percent of government jobs would now be based on merit. However, after realizing the extent of the crackdown, during which at least 266 were killed, 7,000 injured, more than 10,000 students were arrested, and more than 200,000 people were named in cases filed by the police, the students returned to the streets in sporadic protests demanding justice for the families of those killed. Gradually, the protests transcended the quota reform, as people from all walks of life started participating.

International Reactions to Government Violence

The international community heavily criticized the unprecedented violence and excessive use of force against the student protesters. US Department of State spokesperson Matt Miller condemned the violence . UN Secretary-General António Guterres was “deeply concerned” and alarmed by emerging reports about the excessive use of force by security forces and credible evidence of human rights violations in Bangladesh student protests. Amnesty International condemned the Bangladeshi authorities for using unlawful force and failing to ensure the protection of the student protesters.

It is not the first time that Sheikh Hasina used excessive force on its people. Amnesty International has systematically documented evidence of excessive use of force against protesters in the years, 2023, 2021, and 2018.

The 76-year-old Sheikh Hasina, the world’s longest-serving female head of government, failed to understand the anger of the masses.

On 23 July, UN High Commissioner on Human Rights, Volker Turk called for an impartial, independent, and transparent investigation into all alleged human rights violations and offered to deploy an independent fact-finding team to assist the Bangladesh government in building trust among all stakeholders and to help de-escalate tensions. The EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, criticized a reported “shoot-on-sight policy” in Bangladesh, killings “perpetrated by the authorities”, as well as killings of law enforcement officers, mass arrests, and property damage. He called for a thorough investigation into the incidents and to bring those responsible to justice. EU also suspended its ongoing negotiations with Bangladesh on a new partnership and cooperation agreement to enhance trade and economic relations.

Twenty-two US Senators and Representatives urged US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to condemn all acts of violence, ensure that critical civil liberties such as freedom of expression and peaceful assembly are protected, and take action to hold complicit government officials accountable for the above abuses against the Bangladeshi people.

The anti-discrimination student movement raised a nine-point list of demands on 22 July, including: a public apology from the PM taking responsibility for mass killings, the resignation of home minister and the road, transport, and bridges minister who is also the general sectary of the ruling Awami League, banning the Bangladesh Chhatra League (the pro-government student movement that is effectively the government’s vigilante force) from student politics; and guarantees that protesters would not face any academic or administrative harassment, along with other demands.

Government Crackdown versus “Total Non-Cooperation”

The subsequent government crackdown and attacks by ruling party supporters triggered one of the biggest protests against Hasina. Not only police but also people from the ruling party, Awami League, wore helmets and fired live bullets at the protesters. Anger had already built up among the common people under the autocratic regime of Sheikh Hasina. Soon these student-led protests took the shape of a broader people’s platform to express dissatisfaction and discontent against the government, seen as trying to suppress civil liberties at every instance through excessive force.

The anti-discrimination students’ platform, which had now turned into a wider “public movement” on 3 August, issued a call for a nationwide “total non-cooperation” movement until Hasina resigned. Fifteen-point instructions on how to observe “non-cooperation” were released which included, among other things, non-payment of any tax or rent, non-payment of electricity bill, gas bill, or water bill, staying away from the office, closing educational institutions, no remittances to the country from expatriates, boycotting all government meetings, seminars, events, and for banks to open only on Sundays for personal transactions.

Although Hasina expressed an interest in talking to quota activists, it was too late. The movement coordinators declined to dialogue with a “murderous” government. One of the coordinators of the movement, Nahid Islam, said:

a massacre has taken place indiscriminately on the orders of the current government. Women, children, students, teachers, workers — no one was spared from this massacre. Instead of prosecuting the murderers, the students were arrested and tortured indiscriminately. The government used lethal firearms in this massacre. We cannot expect an impartial trial and investigation from such a government. We therefore announce a single-point demand: the resignation of this dictatorial government.

He further stated that Sheikh Hasina not only should resign, but should be tried for murder, looting, and corruption. “We do not want to give her an exit route by a simple resignation. She should resign and be brought to justice.”

Since the morning of 4 August, the leaders and workers of the Awami League and allied organizations like the Chhatra League , the Jubo League (youth wing), and others across the country took to the streets to crush the movement. They carried sticks, machetes, and local weapons, while some were seen using firearms against protesters alongside law enforcement. Hasina also instigated them by saying that those who were engaging in “sabotage” and destruction in the name of protest were no longer students, but criminals, and that “iron hands” should be used to deal with them. At least 100 people died, including 13 police officers.

On the same day, Hasina announced a three-day holiday, an indefinite curfew, and an internet blackout across the country. Protesters, however, called for a mass march to surround the capital. By midday on 5 August, tens of thousands of protesters, including many women and girls, marched on foot and in rickshaws towards the prime minister’s residence, raising slogans like “Amar Bhai Morlo Keno, Sheikh Hasina Jobab Chai” (Why did my brother die? Sheikh Hasina I want an answer), “Lorai, Lorai, Lorai Chai, Lorai Kore Bachte Chai” (Fight, fight; we want to fight; we want to fight to survive), and “Dofa Ek Dabi Ek, Sheikh Hasinar Padatyag” (One point, one demand, Sheikh Hasina’s resignation).

The 76-year-old Sheikh Hasina, the world’s longest-serving female head of government, failed to understand the anger of the masses. She was forced to flee the country in a military helicopter when thousands of protesters started moving towards Ganabhaban, the PM’s official residence. The Army Chief General, Waker-Uz-Zamanm, announced that Hasina had resigned and an interim government would be formed to run the country. The Army chief also promised an investigation into the deadly crackdown on student-led protests and ensured that the army and police would not fire on protesters.

Struggle over Interim Government

Key coordinators of the student moment have made it clear that they will propose members for the interim national government — they will not support any other body. They contacted Nobel Laureate Prof. Mohammad Yunus, who has agreed to head the interim government. They also declared that no government other than that one proposed by the students would be accepted, whether a military government, one backed by the military, or a government of fascists. Foreseeing an attempt to foil the student’s uprising, the movement has formed a Committee to Safeguard Public Property and Communal Harmony to guard and protect minority communities and public property in every locality. How far the students will carry forward their struggle remains to be seen.

Sheikh Hasina does deserve some credit for economic measures such as building infrastructure in the country, providing electricity to remote villages, and building highways, railway lines, and ports. However, she failed to ensure political rights, political pluralism, civil liberties, organizational rights, rule of law, and personal autonomy. Her exercise of hard power and disregard for democratic norms ultimately led to her downfall. Her resignation highlights the importance of maintaining a balance between economic progress and democratic governance together with transparency and accountability, in the absence of which only a few benefit at the expense of the many.

To ensure meaningful change, Bangladesh needs focused and decisive leadership to strengthen its democracy and ensure that institutions work for the people.

Reports indicate that while the Awami League will be kept out of the interim government, the anti-Indian Bangladesh Nationalist Party and pro-Pakistani Jamaat-e-Islami may be included. India is too closely associated with Hasina. This will pose an immediate challenge for India to develop working relations with key figures within the opposition parties in Bangladesh. India should express its readiness to expand the bilateral economic engagement with a successor government.

It is also possible that Pakistan and China will try to exploit the situation to nudge the new government away from India. Countries like the US, UK, India, and the European Union should support Bangladesh in ensuring a peaceful transition to a new political order.

It is very likely that in a few months, the interim government could manage to hold fresh elections and a newly elected civilian government could be formed. If those are free and fair, a different Bangladesh could emerge. However, it is also possible that in the absence of a clear vision of the future, the new order will become just another political settlement. One party is replaced by another, but the situation of the people on the grounds remains unchanged.

To ensure meaningful change, Bangladesh needs focused and decisive leadership to strengthen its democracy and ensure that institutions work for the people. The movement that toppled Hasina is yet to offer the kind of vision and leadership that could create a new political order based on the principles of nationalism, socialism, democracy, and secularism as enshrined in Bangladesh’s constitution.